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Forest Cover Tipping Points
There’s an interesting discussion of forest tipping points in a new paper in Science: Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren, Egbert H....
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Forest Cover Tipping Points
This is a model of forest stability and transitions, inspired by: Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren, Egbert H. Van Nes, Marten...
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Project Power Laws
An interesting paper finds a heavy-tailed (power law) distribution in IT project performance. IT projects fall in to a similar category. Calculating the risk associated with an IT project using the...
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A project power law experiment
Taking my own advice, I grabbed a simple project model and did a Monte Carlo experiment to see if project performance had a heavy tailed distribution in response to normal and uniform inputs. The model...
View ArticleWhat the heck is a bifurcation?
A while back, Bruce Skarin asked for an explanation of the bifurcations in a nuclear core model. I can’t explain that model well enough to be meaningful, but I thought it might be useful to explain the...
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Fun with 1D vector fields
Phase plots are the key to understanding life, the universe and the dynamics of everything. Well, maybe that’s a bit of an overstatement. But they do nicely explain tipping points and bifurcations,...
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Early warnings of catastrophe
There are warning signs when the active structure of a system is changing. But a new paper shows that they may not always be helpful for averting surprise catastrophes. Catastrophic Collapse Can Occur...
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Random rein control
An interesting article in PLOS one explores the consequences of a system of random feedbacks: The Emergence of Environmental Homeostasis in Complex Ecosystems The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic...
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Feedback and project schedule performance
Yasaman Jalili and David Ford look take a deeper look at project model dynamics in the January System Dynamics Review. An excerpt: Quantifying the impacts of rework, schedule pressure, and ripple...
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Coupled Catastrophes
I ran across this cool article on network dynamics, and thought the model would be an interesting application for Ventity: Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent...
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